Embrace Fate: On actively accepting Randomness

Have you ever been in a game of ⁽¹⁾Settlers of Catan when it all starts to unravel? It’s usually toward the tail-end of the “mid-game” just as things might have started gelling and players might be vying for the top three positions . You get this one player who might have spent the entire evening meticulously placing  their settlements on the most statistically probable hexes. But for the previous six rounds, the dice have refused to cooperate. Instead, they have landed on weirdly improbable numbers, and the dreaded number “seven”. The player’s face reddens and they start blaming their "terrible luck". In that moment, the board game ceases to be a pastime and becomes an uncanny mirror. The frustration isn't really about wood, sheep or bricks,  it is something visceral, a panicked reaction to a lack of control.

This is the "random seed" in action. In computing, a random seed is the starting point used to generate a sequence of unpredictable outcomes. In life, both in business and at home, the random seed is the only thing we can truly count on. To navigate it without losing our cool, we need a specific tool, something called Amor Fati.

Amor Fati is a Latin phrase,  meaning "a love of fate." The concept is deeply rooted in Stoic philosophy and was championed by Nietzsche in the late 1800’s. It describes a mindset where one doesn’t just tolerate the "bad" things that happen, but learns to actually embrace them. To the uninitiated, this sounds like madness. Why would anyone love a bad roll of the dice for instance? Why would you love a delayed shipment, a sudden bureaucratic hurdle, or a storm that cancels your ferry ride? The secret lies in appreciating that wishing for the dice to have landed differently is as productive as shouting at the clouds for raining down on us. It is a rejection of reality. When we lose our cool at the gaming table or get snappy with the other players, we’re basically refusing to accept things as they are.  Amor Fati suggests that since this roll is the only one that exists, it is, by definition, the perfect roll. It is the raw material you have been given to work with.

 If you’ve ever tried to organise a project of any sort, you’ll know that the "random seed" is very real and will affect you one way or another. Systems, any system we will ever face,  are often non-linear in nature. You might have the "statistically best" plan, all the resources you need are there, everything is ready to roll as it were and yet, we roll a “seven”! A key resource falls ill or goes on holiday for three weeks without notice; a permit you might need gets stuck in a forgotten drawer. In these moments, we find ourselves at the Catan table I mentioned earlier. We might find ourselves feeling a bit off balance, complaining that "it shouldn't be this way," or alternatively we can practice rolling with the punches. Basically, we consciously seek an adjustment to the change in circumstances.

Games like ⁽²⁾Backgammon are the ultimate training grounds for this. Backgammon is a brutal teacher. You can play a mathematically perfect game, only for your opponent to roll the exact double they need to escape. You see old veterans of the game handling this with a shrug and a prompt return to the next round of play. They aren't really being indifferent, they are simply aware that the dice are not an extension of their will. They love the game more than they love the victory.

Research into the study of play and psychology suggests that board games build emotional resilience by simulating real-world stress in a low-stakes environment. When you lose a game because of randomness, your brain experiences a micro-dose of the same frustration it feels when, let’s say, a project goes wrong. However, because the consequences are limited to a gaming board, you have a safe space from where to observe your own reaction. You can feel the heat rising in your head and choose not to let it reach your lips as it were. You can practice saying, "Well, that was a disastrous roll. Now, what is the best move I can make from this new position?" By doing this repeatedly, you are helping yourself carve out new neural pathways. You are training your prefrontal cortex to stay online when the "luck" turns sour. You are learning that while you cannot control the random seed, you still have the final say over your response to it.

Accepting a situation does not mean you should ignore a sudden setback. In fact, it means the exact opposite.

I recently enjoyed playing a racing game called ⁽³⁾Charioteer from GMT games. It is a well-designed game that is easy to set up and explain. I started the race brilliantly and quickly pulled ahead of the pack. My strategy was working perfectly, or so I thought, and I seemed almost certain to win. My success depended to an extent on drawing specific “Fate” tokens from a bag, and for a long time, luck was on my side.

 Eventually, my luck changed. I drew four “useless” tokens in a row and lost the advantage I had built up. This was quite stressful, especially as another player began teasing me about my previous "good luck." Although I am used to such banter, the poor draws did cloud my judgment.

I became distracted and made what in other circumstances would have been a further, avoidable  mistake. While trying to mentally plan two rounds ahead, I misread the board and played my second turn early. I believe that this faux pas partially cost me the game. The players behind me overtook me in the final lap, and I finished in third place.

I realise now that, most probably, this happened because I failed to face the reality of the situation. I did not accept that the token draws were beyond my control. In retrospect I now realise that I should have taken them in stride and simply done my best with what I had been dealt.

Upon further reflection and research, I realised that my early lead was actually a disadvantage. The game appears to incorporate "catch-up" mechanics that benefit those trailing behind. Specifically, the tokens I found ineffective are designed to be used only by players who are not in the lead. It seems the most effective strategy is to remain within the main group of chariots and wait until the final third of the race to make a decisive move. Maintaining a lead becomes significantly more difficult if established too early in the game.

This brings us to the heart of what can be thought of as risk management. A common mistake is thinking that managing your risk is about eliminating luck. It never is. It is actually about managing the relationship between your choices and the probable outcomes. In a game of Catan, a good player knows that placing a settlement on a "2" is normally a bad move, while placing it on an "8" is considered a good one. Yet If the "2" rolls five times and the "8" never rolls, the player who chose the "8" did not technically make a mistake. On the contrary, they made a correct decision that nonetheless yielded a poor outcome. In work as well as in life, we must learn to judge ourselves by the quality of our decisions, not the randomness of the results. If you did the work, checked the probabilities, and made a sound move, but the "random seed" went against you, there is no cause for reproach. You simply accept the outcome, love the challenge it presents, and roll again.

Yet when it comes to the concept of Amor Fati, I cannot claim mastery nor do I expect to ever achieve it fully in my lifetime. Accepting outcomes that run contrary to one's expectations remains a tremendous challenge to me. It can be difficult to accept any loss of control with grace, even when the circumstances are understandably beyond my influence.

In many forms of contact sports, athletes are taught to absorb or deflect the force of a blow to diminish its impact. In this we see the understanding that the oncoming force is not within the athlete’s control.  It is also widely appreciated within these same sporting circles that true failure lies not in the “fall” itself, but in the refusal to rise again even when we otherwise can. Similarly, Buddhism teaches that life is inseparable from suffering and that enlightenment can only be found by relinquishing the illusion of control. I view these various world-views  as distinct interpretations of the same underlying principle.

In my experience, I have accepted (to an extent) that embracing Amor Fati requires me to let go of the illusion that I can control the “random seed”. I strive to accept the circumstances I am handed and to focus my energy on how I respond to them. I make a conscious effort to avoid self-pity and refuse to adopt a defeatist mindset when things do not go as planned. While it is most certainly a difficult process to internalise, doing so helps me remain focused on my goals..

I have found that playing a board game provides an excellent opportunity for me to observe my own reactions and refine my character. When the dice produce an unfavourable result, I try to catch the sigh before it leaves my lips and acknowledge my frustration. I have come to realise that these unexpected outcomes are precisely what make the experience meaningful and engaging. If every result were predictable or the dice always obeyed my personal whims, the game would quickly become a tedious chore. I have indeed learned that randomness provides the necessary texture and flavour that makes my personal journey richer.

I think that I can frankly say that I have realised that practicing Amor Fati does not mean I should just sit back and watch things happen to me. Instead, I think that it encourages me to stay involved while keeping a level head. I have grown to understand that the world does not owe me any favours. In a way I have come to accept that I cannot control how things progress and that my influence over how they turn out is often quite small by comparison. The next time I face a difficult situation, I plan to continue practising all this by taking a deep breath and simply dealing with the next hand I am given. No matter what happens, I will choose to value the experience for what it is.

  

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Notes

(1)    Catan is a resource management race where players build settlements, but the “7”, the most mathematically frequent roll, triggers a "Robber" that steals cards and penalizes players holding large hands. To mitigate this risk, players must constantly spend resources to stay below the card limit and use Knight cards to clear blocked tiles.

 

 

(2)    Backgammon is a strategic race where players move checkers toward their home board based on dice rolls, balancing aggressive "hitting" with defensive positioning. Despite playing a mathematically perfect game, the statistical variance of dice means an opponent can still win through a series of low-probability "lucky" rolls that go counter to the expected value of your moves. To mitigate this volatility, players utilise the “doubling cube” to leverage their positional advantage, forcing opponents to either forfeit the match or accept increased stakes when the odds are no longer in their favor.

 

(3)    Charioteer is a fast-paced Roman racing game where players play matching card sets to accelerate, navigating the tension between maintaining speed and accumulating damage. Players mitigate stagnant turns by spending Fate tokens to improve movement or Fan tokens to trigger powerful special abilities, ensuring progress even when their hand of cards is weak.